What happens and when
In the six to eight weeks before a general election, political spending concentrates on local inventory in contested areas. Connected TV, broadcast, streaming audio, and social feeds absorb most of it.
The effect on your costs depends almost entirely on your geography. In a contested state or district, expect significant inflation. In a safe area, you may barely notice.
Which channels get hit hardest
Connected TV and broadcast take the worst of it — political buyers want reach and are price-insensitive, and in some cases hold rate protections you do not.
Paid social feeds inflate meaningfully. Streaming audio inflates moderately.
Paid search barely moves, because political campaigns are not bidding on "emergency plumber." Retargeting and your own customer list are essentially untouched, since you are buying a small, specific audience nobody else wants.
The plan
Front-load. Move demand-creation spending into the eight weeks before the squeeze rather than fighting through it. Awareness bought in August works in October.
During the window, shift toward search, retargeting, and customer-list reactivation. Keep total spend flat and change its shape.
Then move back after election day, when inventory frees up and prices fall for the remainder of the fourth quarter.
The upside nobody uses
The two weeks immediately after an election are among the cheapest of the year on television and audio inventory. The political money vanishes overnight and holiday retail has not fully arrived.
If you were going to run a brand campaign in the fourth quarter, that is the window.